The Sub-2 Hour Marathon? Who and when?

This morning the Science of the Sport brings up again the subject of a sub two-hour marathon. Personally, I don't believe it's possible over the next 25 to 50 years. The Science of Sport's observation comes up with a likely 80 year wait for the sub two hour race.  The athlete that may accomplish this feat is probably not even born yet. It will be a truly remarkable achievement, if and when it's run. Those of us still around will be very lucky to witness such an amazing performance. Perhaps similar to Bannister's sub four minute mile. The two-hour marathon:  Who and when?  If at all... This morning, I came across what has been a very topical point of debate for the last couple of years - will the two-hour marathon be run, when will it be run, and by whom? The paper is featured in the Journal of Applied Physiology, and it asks these questions, and presents certain physiological concepts and questions that would need to be addressed in order for this performance to be possible.  Ultimately, the paper provides more questions than answers (because frankly, there are none), but it's interesting as a piece of a debate that comes around fairly regularly.  So today, I'll look at only one of the aspects used in the debate - previous performance.  The physiology of what a 2-hour marathon involves is for another time (otherwise this would be a mammoth post) Back to 2008 - the barrier comes into view Way back in October 2008, the debate began when Haile Gebrselassie ran 2:03:59.  As we are prone to do, when a barrier gets broken, we look ahead to the next one.  Gebrselassie himself was saying that he'd run 2:02 soon, which seemed a little optimistic given that he'd just taken 26 seconds off - so even another 2 performances of the same magnitude wouldn't have seen this happen. In this case, we jumped four barriers ahead and asked whether it was possible for a human to run under 2-hours.  You can read my thoughts on this topic here.  David Bedford, race director of the London Marathon, was quoted as saying Without doubt I will see a two-hour marathon in my lifetime. It might be towards the end of my life. It might be another 20 years. But, yes, it will definitely happen." Well, unless Bedford has figured out a way to live to at least 120, = it was suggested he would be wrong. The paper - different approaches to the question So looking a bit more closely at the paper, the first approach adopted was to analyse the progression of the marathon world record over the last fifty years and then to predict forward when it will dip below 2 hours.  This is of course a hazardous estimate - it was once predicted that women would outrun men in the marathon because women's times were dropping faster than men's times - past performance can be a very unreliable as a predictor of future performance! Nevertheless, the paper makes the following observations, based on the graph below, which looks at world record times since about 1930: So the drop in the 1950s and 1960s was pretty rapid (attributed to changes in training to a high volume, year round change, and African runners entry into the marathon event), followed by a much more consistent period of decline.  So on average, the record has fallen by 20 seconds per year since 1960, and so there are two scenarios: If this rate continues, then the sub-2 hour marathon will be achieved by 2021 If the rate declines to say 10 seconds per year (based on the projection from 1980), then it will be achieved by 2035, 25 years from now The third possibility, not mentioned in the paper, is that the decline drops right off, and settles at say one world record every five years, with each one taking 15 seconds off the time.  If this happens, then it takes 80 years to achieve, if at all. You can make up your own mind over which of these projections are likely to be realistic.  It depends, of course, on whether you think the ceiling is being approached or not.  One thing I will point out is that between 1988 and 1998, the record didn't move - it got "stuck" at 2:06:50 by Dinsamo of Ethiopia.  Then the unlikely source of Ronaldo da Costa broke it, and there was a spate of records.  So at the risk of stating the obvious, there may well be an average decline, but the real story is told by the "stagnations" and the "steps", and when asking whether a sub 2 hour is possible, you have to ask whether they will continue or not?  And then there is the obvious issue of whether 10 seconds per year is realistic? For example, let's do the same exercise for the men's 10,000m world record (the reason for the choice of event should become clear later). Below is a graph showing the drop in World records since 1950. So, from 1950 to 2010, the average decline in the record is 2.8 seconds per year.  But, from 1977 (the first African WR over 10km, incidentally), it's only 2 seconds per year. But then, very interestingly, it increases from 1993 again - you may decide what drove that (EPO, perhaps?  Better training?  More prize money?  Greater athletes like Tergat, Gebrselassie?) - to 2.4 seconds per year.  Then, since the current record was set in 2005, it's remained largely unchallenged.  And with the dearth of high quality 10,000m races on the circuit these days (outside of major championships), it would seem likely to remain that way. In any event, apply the same method to the 10,000m record and let's ask whether we will ever see a sub-26 minute 10,000m? If you take the overall average of 2.8 seconds improvement per year, then it predicts that we will see a 25:59 in 2011.  Ok, so that's not going to happen. If we take the average progression since 1977, then the prediction is that we'll see a sub-26 time in 2013.  Again, I feel pretty confident in saying this is not going to happen.  The record has been improved by only six seconds in the last 12 years, and I can't see much happening from here on.  The point is that this kind of projection almost always under-estimates the likely progression. Why 10,000m times are so vital:  Predicting UP So now, why is the relative stagnation of 10,000m times important to this debate about the marathon?  The reason is that the golden-era of 10,000m running in the 1990s, where the records fell so regularly from 1993 to 1998, is one of the main factors responsible for driving the drop in marathon performances in the 1990s and 2000s.  Regardless of the factors that drove that spate of records in the 1990s, it was the conversion of these runners to the longer distance that helped to lower the marathon world record and raise the standard to a point where a 2:05 now longer even guarantees a win. The reality is that there is a strong correlation between the speed an athlete possesses over 10,000m and their ability to run a fast marathon.  It's not perfect, otherwise the best 10,000m runners would win marathons all the time (Zersenay Tadese, for example, has not converted his amazing 10,000m and half-marathon achievements yet). And of course, there are exceptional marathon runners who have not had quite the same success over 10,000m (often due to circumstances and choice).  However, the basic premise is this - to run a sub-2 hour marathon, there is a cut-off limit to how SLOWLY you can afford to run over 10,000m.  And right now, there is no athlete with the 10,000m performance ability necessary to run at 2:50/km for a marathon. The question is, if a 2:03:59 marathon is the result of a ± 26:30 to 26:45 10,000m runner (and this range is not that large), what kind of speed over 10km will be required for an athlete to run a 1:59:59?  And this is a vital question, for while I appreciate that there are many considerations that affect how shorter distance speed is translated UP to longer distances (the best 1500m runner is not the best 10,000m runner, of course), we do know that 10km and 21km performance do very closely predict marathon performance.  There are a number of reasons for this, mainly related to the relative speed sustained and the physiological/energetic processes for the two distances.  These issues are covered in the Joyner paper, which I will look at in due course. So, if we apply this same logic to a half-marathon - the very best runners in the world are presently able to run a half marathon in 59 minutes.  They go through half-way of a marathon in 62 minutes, a 3 minute difference.  To run a 2 hour marathon requires 60 minute halves, and that athlete thus probably needs a half marathon best in the range of 57 minutes.  Is that achievable?  Certainly not now, but if you want to know when a sub-2 hour marathon is possible, the answer is "when an athlete can run a half marathon in 57 minutes".  And that is a lot further away than 13 or even 25 years. A highly unlikely scenario of 10 seconds per year My point here is that predicting marathon performance based on past performances may not be the best way to go - it's certainly incomplete, and what is missing is the recognition that shorter distance performance may be an even better predictor of marathon performance than previous marathon performance! So, based purely on performance analysis, I would have to say that the projection that the record will continue to decline by 10 seconds per year is highly unlikely.  Instead, I would be surprised if the world record is broken by more than 15 seconds once every five years.  Why?  Because that record is now so strong that the very best runner needs the very best conditions, pacemakers, race situation and course in order to challenge it.  So, 15 seconds every 5 years is, in my opinion, a best-case, and that gives us 80 years to wait for the 2-hour marathon. And there is a problem in that the supply of great courses is now dropping below the demand.  For now, Berlin remains the prime hunting ground for records.  Dubai has established itself as super fast, and Rotterdam has re-emerged as a super fast course.  But I do believe that as that record gets closer and closer to the limit of what is physiologically possible, courses like London (surface, wind, competition and turns), Chicago (weather) and possibly even Berlin and Dubai eventually will require too many chips to be in place.  Too strong a field (as in London) and the pace in the middle is likely to be erratic as guys watch each other and not the clock.  And remember how rain in Dubai scuppered a record attempt?  Or a wind in Berlin?  It's now too precise, the margins for error too small.  So the notion of every race being a record-attempt will cease, and we'll see viable attempts (where "viable" is a guy on 2:04 pace at 35km) only once every 5 or 6 years.  Of course, there is physiology too, and a large part of the Joyner paper is devoted to talk of running economy required for a sub-2 hour marathon.  This is maybe the most interesting part of the discussion, much like it was for the cycling analysis we did recently.  We'll dig out the analysis done on Zersenay Tadese, one of the most interesting things we've looked at on this site. But this post is already long enough looking only at historical performances, so I'll leave economy alone for now and return to it later this week! Ross The Science of Sport Dr. Ross Tucker Dr. Jonathan Dugas

Holy Oaxaca !!!

Mister David Rudisha has done it again. This evening Rudisha lowered his (not yet ratified) 800m WR to 1:41.01. Rudisha has now broken the 800m record twice in seven days, almost unbelievable. I said earlier this week I believed him capable of sub 1:41, well, he almost did it. Do I hear sub 1:40? Anything is possible and at this time very realistic.

Also this evening, Bernard Lagat set a new American record in the 3000m, with his 7:29:00 (second place). Chris Solinsky had another fine performance with his 7:34:32, good for fifth place.

The future is indeed very bright.

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Rudisha lowers 800m World record again, 1:41.01; Carter dashes 9.78sec in Rieti - IAAF World Challenge

David Rudisha speeds to World record of 1:41.01 in Rieti(Victah Sailer)

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Rieti, Italy – At this evening’s the IAAF World Challenge meeting in Rieti, which was celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, Kenyan David Rudisha, who lowered the World 800m record* last week in Berlin to a time of 1:41.09, further reduced the all-time best for two laps to 1:41.01*.

Rudisha’s time today was exactly one second faster than his winning time last year on the Rieti track which was an African record at the time, and further buried the memory of Wilson Kipketer’s 1:41.11, a World record which had withstood all assaults until this time last week.
His training partner Sammy Tangui paced him at a super-fast 48.20 in the first 400 metres followed by Jackson Kivuva and Rudisha who took the lead with 300 metres to go.
Rudisha went through 600 metres in the lead in 1:14.56 and continued to push the pace with his smooth stride. His run in the final straight was a triumphal race against the clock.
“I just knew I was in good shape. The conditions were perfect. I expected to break two records in seven days,” said Rudisha. “I want to return to training for next year because 2011 will be a World Championships record,” continued Rudisha.
Rudisha’s record was the perfect birthday for the 40th anniversary of the Rieti meeting. It was the eighth World record broken in the history of Rieti. The last athlete who managed before Rudisha was Asafa Powell who clocked the men’s 100 metres in 9.74 in 2007.
“I have always received a very warm welcome in Rieti. I love this track and the Rieti crowd who have always given their support. This record is for them,” continued Rudisha.
Asked on which part of the race he needs to improve to further lower his World record in the future, Rudisha said: “I cannot say now what I need to improve. I will see in training with my coach what I can improve but I think I need to change only small details.”
Boaz Lalang clocked an impressive 1:42.95 to finish second ahead of USA’s Nick Symmonds, third in 1:43.76 (PB), and European silver medallist Michael Rimmer from Great Britain who dipped under 1:44 for the first time in his career with 1:43.89. European champion Marcin Lewandowski from Poland lost his continental leadership but produced a new seasonal best in fifth place with 1:44.10.
Carter runs 9.78 sec to equal Gay’s 100m world season best
Jamaican Nesta Carter stole the sprint show with a fantastic men’s 100 metres, a 9.78 PB run (+0.9m/s wind) which equalled American Tyson Gay’s world seasonal best from London Samsung League meeting, making the Jamaican the fourth fastest man of all-time.
It was a fabulous 100m with five men under 10 seconds and the sixth and seventh clocking 10.00. Ryan Bailey smashed his PB with 9.88 beating Jamaican Mario Forsythe, third in 9.95, European champion Christophe Lemaitre, fourth in a new French record of 9.97, and Michael Frater from Jamaica, fifth in 9.98.
Michael Rodgers finished sixth in 10.00 to edge Jaysuma Saidy Ndure, who set a new Norwegian record of 10.00 to wrap-up a great 100 metres.
The heats were an anticipation of the fireworks in the final. Ndure won the first (1.0m/s) of the two in 10.07 beating Frater (10.12) and Carter (10.13). In the second (1.1m/s), Bailey smashed his PB clocking 9.95 beating Lemaitre who equalled his French record and European seasonal best with 9.98, his second ever sub-10 seconds time. Forsythe finished third also dipping under 10 seconds with 9.99 in a remarkable race for a heat.
Jamaican Sherone Simpson, Olympic silver medallist in Beijing, took the women’s dash in 11.11 win in the women’s 100 metres to edge Debbie Ferguson McKenzie by 0.04.
Spearmon 19.85 and Oliver 13.01
Wallace Spearmon, 200 metres Samsung Diamond League winner, stormed to an impressive 19.85 in the men’s 200 metres (0.6m/s), just 0.06 sec slower than his best time set in Zurich when he lifted the Diamond League Trophy. Double Olympic 400 Hurdles champion Angelo Taylor lowered his PB to 20.23. Marc Schneeberger also ran the fastest race of his career with 20.42.
David Oliver could not dip under 13 seconds in the men’s 110m Hurdles but managed to break the meeting’s record of 13.07 set by Colin Jackson in 1994 by clocking 13.01. Jamaican Dwight Thomas finished runner-up in 13.26 to beat US Jason Richardson, third in 13.37.
T. Bekele beats Lagat – world lead and American records fall
It was not just the 800m which excelled of the middle distances in Rieti with splendid races in the men’s and women’s 3000 metres and 1500 metres.
Tariku Bekele improved his own world seasonal best for 3000m from 7:28.99 set in Berlin last week to 7:28.70 holding off USA's Bernard Lagat who smashed the Area record dipping under 7:30 for the first time in his career with 7:29.00. Edwin Soi from Kenya also went under 7:30 finishing third in 7:29.75 in another great race for depth with John Kipkoech, fourth in 7:32.72 and USA’s Chris Solinsky, fifth in 7:34.32.
The 1500 metres featured Olympic champion Asbel Kiprop, world seasonal leader Silas Kiplagat (3:29.27 in Monaco) and last year's fastest Augustine Choge. Vickson Polonet from Kenya acted as pacemaker going through 800 metres in 1:52.64 and 2:38 at the bell before finishing his task with 300 metres to go. In the final lap, Kiprop and Kiplagat engaged in a splendid neck-to-neck battle which remained undecided until Kiprop pulled away in the final 50 metres to win in a new seasonal best of 3:31.78 to Kiplagat’s 3:31.97. Nixon Chepseba took third place in 3:32.42, while World champion Yusuf Saad Kamel ran his quickest of 2010 in fourth place in 3:33.06.
Reigning World champion Maryam Yusuf Jamal from Bahrain returned to good form dipping under 4 minutes in 3:58.93 in the women’s race on the track where she set the meeting record of 3:56.18 in 2006. Mimi Belete set her PB to finish second in 4:00.25 ahead of France’s Hind Dehiba, third in 4:01.07.
Kenyan Sylvia Kibet, 5000 World silver medallist, launched her kick in the final 300 metres to take the win in the women’s 3000 metres in 8:39.08 to hold off Moncton’s 3000 metres World Junior champion Mercy Cherono who set her lifetime best with 8:42.09. Pauline Korikwang finished third in 8:43.67.
Spencer falls
The women’s 400m Hurdles produced a major upset, as Samsung Diamond League winner Kalesie Spencer, who was leading comfortably in the final straight, hit the last hurdle badly and fell on the ground giving way to USA's Sheena Tosta who crossed the finish-line first in 54.71.
European champion Tatyana Firova and USA’s Natasha Hastings engaged in a close battle at the beginning of the final straight of the women’s 400 metres before the Russian pulled clear to take the win in 50.25 to Hastings’ 50.87. Italian record holder Libania Grenot, fourth in Barcelona in both the 400 metres and the 4x400 relay, finished third in 51.20.
Samsung Diamond League winner Fabiana Murer set a new meeting record in the women’s Pole Vault with 4.74m on her first attempt. Murer was watched closely by two Pole Vault legends Sergey Bubka and Yelena Isinbayeva who were invited as special  guests of the meeting.
Reigning World champion Yaroslav Rybakov was the only man able to clear 2.30m to take the win in the men’s High Jump, while in the Long Jump, European Indoor champion and record holder Sebastian Bayer returned to better form to win with a new seasonal best of 8.06m beating China’s Li Jinzhe by four centimetres.
Hammer Challenge – Heidler crowned overall winner
The penultimate leg of the IAAF Hammer Challenge for men and the final competition for the women was held over two days with a qualifying round on Saturday and the final with the top four qualifiers in both men’s and women’s qualifiers. Japanese Koji Murofushi, who made his first appearance since June’s Japanese Championships, highlighted Saturday afternoon with an impressive 80.99m world seasonal best which broke the previous 2010 world best.
In today’s final Murofushi, who set the meeting record with 82.62 in 2007, opened the final with 79.84. On his second attempt the 2004 Olympic champion threw 80.96m, before capping the competition with two more throws over 80 metres (80.07 and 80.83). European champion Libor Charfreitag produced a best throw of 79.62 to finish runner-up ahead of IAAF Hammer Throw challenge overall leader Dilshod Nazarov, third with 78.34.
While the men have one more contest remaining in Zagreb next week, the women’s Hammer Throw today final was exactly that, the end of their season long challenge. Cuban Yipsi Moreno, who produced the furthest throw in Saturday’s qualifying round with 71.32m, went into the lead with 73.78m. Russian Tatyana Lysenko, European silver medallist overhauled Moreno on the third attempt with 74.22 and improved again in the fourth attempt to 74.80.
Chinese Zhang Wenxiu finished third with 73.70 to beat World champion and World record holder Anita Wlodarczyk, who needed 75.02 to overhaul Betty Heidler in the overall ranking of the IAAF Hammer Challenge but who had to content with 73.57m.

      
Diego Sampaolo for the IAAF
*NOTE: World records subject to the usual ratification process

Mary Keitany, although you may not be familiar with this young lady, beware. Keitany is a proven road racer. She is the world record holder at 25K and is the reigning world half-marathon champ. She has shown smart racing tactics and should be a factor in New York
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Keitany to make Marathon debut in New York

Kenya's Mary Keitany during the IAAF/EDF Energy World Half Marathon Championships in Birmingham (Getty Images)

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New York, USA - Reigning World Half-Marathon champion and 25K World record holder Mary Keitany of Kenya will step up to the Marathon distance for the first time in her career at the ING New York City Marathon 2010 on Sunday, November 7.

The ING New York City Marathon is an IAAF Gold Label Road Race.

The debut of Keitany, 28, will be the latest in a long list of Marathon debuts in New York by some of the world’s best women distance runners: Grete Waitz (1978), Tegla Loroupe (1994),  Deena Kastor (2001), Marla Runyan (2002), and Kara Goucher and Kim Smith (2008). Also making her Marathon debut in this year’s race is American Olympian Shalane Flanagan.

Keitany set the 25K World record of 1:19:53 at the BIG 25 in Berlin on 9 May this year. She owns three of the top 12 times in Half-Marathon history and has not lost a Half-Marathon race since October 2007.

“It will be my debut at the marathon distance and I have no idea how my body will react in the last miles, but I’m confident for the new challenge in front of me,” said Keitany.

Also announced for the women’s field were two-time Olympian Kim Smith of New Zealand and former World champion Werknesh Kidane of Ethiopia, who join the previously announced Flanagan and British Olympian Mara Yamauchi for the 41st running of the race.

Gebre Gebremariam of Ethiopia, Arata Fujiwara of Japan, and Kenyans Abel Kirui, Peter Kamais, and Emmanuel Mutai were also announced for the men’s field. Defending champion Meb Keflezighi and 2009 World Half-Marathon bronze medalist Dathan Ritzenhein, both of the United States, and Marathon World record-holder Haile Gebrselassie of Ethiopia, were announced previously.

Organisers for the IAAF

Huddle Gets The American Record

Congratulations to Molly Huddle on her American record in yesterday's Brussels Diamond League 5000 meter race. Huddle ran 14:44.76 breaking Shalane Flanagan's old record by .04 seconds. Interesting enough, she managed "only" tenth place with her record race.

Are the American (distance) women that far behind the world? Perhaps not, but there's plenty of ground to make up. We do have a strong and talented group of young runners on the horizon and still have Flanagan, Goucher, Barringer and Huddle in the mix. If the US coaches can develop and maximize our young talent, the ladies will have opportunities for record runs and medals at world class competitions. 

The future is bright.

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Women's 5,000: Huddle Gets The American Record 

from Letsrun.com

Molly Huddle's decision to stay longer in Europe longer paid off in a big way, as she got the American record by the narrowest of margins - .04.

The subplot in this race was Sentayehu Ejigu and world champ Vivian Cheruiyot competing for the Diamond League title. A win by either one would get the title and the $40,000.

Huddle During American Record Run

Nearly the entire field was still in contact in this race until the final laps. With three laps to go, Brit Stephanie Twell and American Molly Huddle started to fall off as nine people were still in the lead pack. At the bell, at least seven were still in contention but by 300, it was clearly a 3-woman race. By 150, it was a 2-person race between the Diamond League leaders Ejigu and Cheruiyot. The last 100 was for $40,000. Cheruiyot pulled away down the homestretch, showing why she was the world champion last year. Ejigu would fade to third.

The runners kept streaming across the finish line and it was a race against the clock. Molly Huddle crossed in 10th and when the time was posted she had just done enough. 14:44.76, .04 ahead of Shalane Flanagan's old AR. For Huddle, the run justified her decision to stay in Europe and not run the Bix 7 miler, where a $12,000 payday was on the line. It also culminated a great season where she lowered her 5k PR by 33 seconds (she ran 15:17 back in 2007).

The 10th place finish also shows how competitive women's distance running has become with the recent infusion of Kenyan talent. Five Kenyan women finished ahead of Huddle on Friday. Fortunately for Huddle, only 3 of them can run in the World Championships. Prior to the 2007 World Champs, the Kenyan women had 7 medals ever on the track at all the Olympics and World Champs combined. At the last World Champs, they had 6 medals on the track.

Finishing 11th in 14:54.08 was the British hope for the future in 21-year-old Stephanie Twell.

Molly Huddle Post-Race Interview Via Her Agent Flynn Sports: "That was just a good no-pressure situation."

This evening's Diamond League finale has an outstanding cast of characters. The Van Damme Memorial meet has the Rudisha-Kaki clash in the 800M and Semenya's Diamond League debut in the women's 800M. Will Rudisha follow-up his WR race with another 1:41 or faster? Will Kaki build on his 5-2 advantage in head to head match ups with Rudisha? Will Semenya obliterate the women's field or just cruise to an easy win?

There are many great races in Brussels, I'm looking forward to this classic meet.
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Rudisha-Kaki head to head one of 16 sparkling Diamond Race finale clashes in Brussels – PREVIEW – Samsung Diamond League

David Rudisha on his way to breaking Sebastian Coe's stadium record in the 800m in the Oslo Diamond League(Mark Shearman)

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Brussels, Belgium – David Rudisha’s return to the track after his stunning 800m World record and another 100m outing by red-hot Tyson Gay will be just two of the eagerly anticipated highlights at the Belgacom Memorial Van Damme on Friday (27) as the curtain will be drawn on the inaugural Samsung Diamond League season in Brussels.

The Koning Boudewijn Stadium will provide the setting in which 16 more Diamond Race winners will receive their trophies before yet another sell-out crowd of 47,000 – the norm since the meeting’s first edition and the 13th consecutive capacity crowd since the stadium’s current configuration. The unseasonably wet and cool conditions in the forecast for the Belgian capital may not be ideal for some of the athletes’ ambitions, but that will hardly put a damper on what promises to be a fiercely competitive programme across the board. As Meeting Director Wilfried Meert notes, “The athletes say they always get a big boost from the crowd and the atmosphere, and that they can easily forget that it’s cold or wet.”

After displaying their dominance and endurance since the 14-meeting series opened in Doha on 14 May, no less than eight athletes will arrive in the Belgian capital with insurmountable leads* in their respective Diamond Races. But with double points on offer at this second of two Diamond League finals – the first was at the Weltklasse Zurich last week Thursday (18) – several of the battles for the dazzling Diamond Race Trophy and $40,000 cash prize will come down to the proverbial wire.

Event winners in Brussels will add eight points to their season-long tallies, with four points rewarded for second place, and two for third. In mathematical terms, six of the 16 event titles up for grabs in Brussels are yet to be determined.

Rudisha’s WR follow-up

One of those Diamond Race titles still up for grabs is the men’s 800m, where David Rudisha arrives with a six point lead over arch rival Abubaker Kaki. But there can’t be too many who would bet against the 21-year-old Kenyan sensation winning the Diamond Race less than a week after he became the fastest man ever over the distance.

Rudisha, the African champion who has significantly rewritten the event’s all-time list this season, broke Wilson Kipketer’s 13-year-old World record in Berlin last Sunday where he clocked a jaw-dropping 1:41.09, eclipsing the legendary Kenyan-born Dane’s mark by 0.02. Rudisha’s unbeaten in nine starts over the distance this season, has the year’s three fastest performances and seven of the quickest nine. But the race will hardly be a post-World record celebration for Rudisha, who bagged one of the first big meet victories of his career here in 2007 as a relatively unknown 18-year-old.

Kaki, Sudan’s two-time World indoor champion, will ensure that Rudisha has the swiftest of company on Friday evening when the pair square off for the second time this year. The duo were the key players in the Oslo 800m in June, one of the season’s most thrilling and memorable races, where Rudisha edged Kaki 1:42.04 to 1:42.23. Kaki’s run, the fastest-ever non-winning performance, moved him up to the No. 5 spot all-time. Notable footnote: To date the pair have met seven times head-to-head, with Kaki carrying a significant 5-2 advantage.

*from IAAF.

The Daily Mile

I cannot be the only person annoyed or tired of the self promoting, fallacious and insincere fabrications posted on the infamous website- The Daily Mile.

Have you ever visited the daily mile?

This website is the host for many runners, cyclists, swimmers and “bucket list” athletes (??) of present day America. Your average Joe and Jane Jogger posts their workouts on the site and others chime in with comments such as:

“Way to go, you’re the best” or  “You da man” or

 “You can do it”, this one reminds me of Bela Karolyi at the 1996 Olympics.

Alright, everyone is entitled to freedom of speech. I just don’t understand why many feel compelled to embellish their runs or workouts. There is one particular “athlete” that must weigh 200 lbs, works out with weights and still manages to train at 6 minute pace or faster. This particular “athlete” does not list his name, post his picture or lists any real race results. If , a big if, the pace of his training runs are true and accurate, he would be a national class runner.

“Come on man”.

How am I supposed to believe this individual?

“There’s no way, Jose”.

“Show me the money”.

OK, enough from me. Please visit the daily mile and check it out for yourself.

After you’ve had a good laugh, give us some feedback.

Thank you. 

The news of Deena Kastor's pregnancy is great for Deena and her husband. This may well be the end of her competitive career as she has not raced to her potential over the last year or so. Of course anything is possible, she could come back stronger than ever. We'll have to wait at least until late 2011.
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Pregnant with First Child, Deena Kastor Will Miss ING New York City Marathon This Fall

Courtesy of the NYRR
August 26, 2010

United States Olympian and national marathon record-holder Deena Kastor is pregnant and will not run the ING New York City Marathon 2010 on Sunday, November 7. The announcement was made jointly by Kastor’s management company and New York Road Runners.

“I was looking forward to returning to New York this fall to attempt to fulfill my longtime dream of winning there,” said Kastor, who was entered to return to run New York for the first time since finishing sixth in 2006. “Since my marathon debut in 2001, winning the ING New York City Marathon has been on my list of running goals.”

The pregnancy is the first for Kastor, 37, and her husband, Andrew. The baby is due in March 2011.

“Andrew’s and my life has changed greatly over the past couple weeks as we found out I am three months pregnant. We always postponed starting a family, but to hear this news was really exciting and we never imagined it would be so rewarding even long before the baby is born,” said Kastor. “I am especially grateful to have felt fantastic except for feeling a bit sluggish in workouts and tired during the day. As soon as we heard the news, I stopped hard workouts. I am running easy days with my Mammoth Track Club teammates, but have chosen to forgo any hard efforts in order that every bit of my energy goes into making sure the baby will be healthy and strong. I don’t look pregnant yet, but I hear it seems to happen overnight.

“Despite my withdrawal from this year’s ING New York City Marathon, I intend to be there marathon week to take part in all the activities surrounding this fantastic race,” said Kastor. "Since my marathon debut in 2001, I have returned to New York each year whether to race, help host charity events, or help with the television coverage. This year is no exception. For a fan of the sport, New York is the place to be come November."

Kastor won the bronze medal at the 2004 Olympic marathon, and she set the American record with her 2:19:36 victory at the 2006 London Marathon. She has won two World Marathon Majors titles: Chicago in 2005 and London in 2006. Earlier this year she finished second at the NYC Half-Marathon and won the P.F. Chang’s Rock-N-Roll Arizona Half-Marathon in Phoenix.

“Deena is like family to us at NYRR,” said New York Road Runners president and CEO Mary Wittenberg. “We are ecstatic for her and Andrew. There will always be another ING New York City Marathon. There’s no better reason to miss our race than pregnancy!”

The ING New York City Marathon will feature the marathon debuts of United States Olympian Shalane Flanagan and reigning World Half-Marathon champion Mary Keitany of Kenya; the women’s field also includes Mara Yamauchi of Great Britain, who finished sixth at the Beijing Olympic Marathon in 2008.

And the beat goes on, the Semenya story will not go away quietly. I do not believe this entire issue has been handled with any care for Semenya or her competitors, I know this is redundant. The story has beaten like a dead horse. I, for one, can wait for Friday's results from the Brussels Diamond League 800M. How fast will Semenya run? Stay tuned.
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From the AP


Silence on Semenya opens door to ignorance
Associated Press

PARIS -- Happily, Caster Semenya is racing again. About time, too. But the 800-meter world champion cannot outrun the questions, some of them legitimate, about how and why medical experts cleared her to compete as a woman.

The decision by track and field's governing body, the IAAF, to give out nothing more than a terse, uninformative 56-word statement announcing the end of Semenya's nearly yearlong gender-testing ordeal increasingly looks like a mistake.

It respected Semenya's privacy, but it was too short to stop tongues wagging. Although Semenya has competed sparingly since her ban was lifted in July -- Semenya's fourth race will be this Friday in Brussels, Belgium -- the drumbeat of "she's half a man" is starting up again and could get louder as her times improve, as they surely will as she returns to peak form. Such whispers are wrong, ugly and uncharitable, but they also are not surprising given how poorly this saga has been handled from the start and how little effort authorities have made to dispel the misunderstandings about Semenya's case.

Kept in the dark, competitors lining up against and being beaten again by Semenya have been left to make uninformed guesses about the gender-testing process she was subjected to. Saying simply that doctors concluded that she can compete, as the IAAF did, is not enough. Its silence and brush-offs from Semenya about what, if anything, doctors prescribed to enable her to compete again is keeping the door open for the type of intolerable ignorance voiced this past weekend by Diane Cummins. The Canadian runner should be made to wash out her mouth with soap for her stupid insensitivity.

"Is she man, is she lady?" Cummins complained to the Daily Telegraph of London after she finished 1.21 seconds behind Semenya in Berlin on Sunday.

"Even if she is a female, she's on the very fringe of the normal athlete female biological composition from what I understand of hormone testing. So, from that perspective, most of us just feel that we are literally running against a man," the newspaper quoted Cummins as saying.

Clearly, Cummins doesn't get it. That means other, more diplomatic competitors likely don't, too. They need some help figuring out the complex and sensitive issues of gender and biology that are involved here. In truth, we all do. It would help if the IAAF took the lead instead of simply clamming up.

The public admission by NBA star Magic Johnson in 1991 that he was living with HIV marked a step toward ending the shame that was associated with that disease.

If handled with tact but also with more openness, is it possible that Semenya's case could be used to generate wider acceptance and understanding for people with so-called "disorders of sexual development"?

As it is, as Cummins' comments showed, some people are still incapable of looking any further than Semenya's muscular frame and thinking "man" -- even though that is mistaken and cruel.

It is unreasonable to expect Semenya herself to become a Johnson-like advocate, at least not now. She is only 19. She comes from a poor village in South Africa and seemingly had no idea that she might be differently biologically from most other women until this whole affair blew up around her. She needs to focus on herself and her promising career after the horrid 11 months that she spent being prodded, poked and debated over by doctors and public opinion.

But someone does need to speak up -- either her lawyers, her manager or the IAAF. They don't need to open up Semenya's medical files to public scrutiny. But it would help if they gave more information than simply, to cite the IAAF statement, "she can compete" and "please note that the medical details of the case remain confidential and the IAAF will make no further comment."

If Semenya has a condition that might have been giving her a competitive edge over other women, then perhaps that could be explained privately to those runners who race against her. If she has since undergone hormone treatment to reduce or negate that advantage, then that should be explained, too. The risk otherwise is that the doubts about Semenya will simply linger, which is unfair for her and those who race against her.

"It's obviously a human rights issue but human rights affect everyone in the race, not just one person," British runner Jemma Simpson told the Telegraph after finishing fourth in the Berlin race that Semenya won. "No way is it a personal issue but it's a debate about what is right and fair for everyone."

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John Leicester is an international sports columnist for The Associated Press.